Portfolio Manager Survey

Single Question Survey Result: The Rally vs. The Cliff

12/12/12 -

Respondents’ Answers to Our Single Question Survey:
“The market's recent rise in the face of the Fiscal Cliff negotiations means…”

• We polled the small-cap portfolio manager populace as to what the recent market’s rise means in the face of the Fiscal Cliff Negotiations.  Thank you to the over 190 respondents to our snap poll!
• Only 2% expect a Grand Bargain.  Low economic growth assumptions revealed.  No true consensus exists on whether the rally will last or is due to fiscal cliff optimism.  Respondents were allowed to select more than one answer.  Despite the ability to select more than one answer, no answer garnered more than a 50% response rate and only 46% believed the market is rallying because “a ‘Good Enough’ bargain will be reached without hurting the economy or market”.  Virtually no one believes a true Grand Bargain will emerge, indicating if a true Grand Bargain is achieved managers will be pleasantly surprised and likely send stocks higher.  Of those believing in a “Good Enough” bargain, 37% believed the Fed would intervene as needed while only 26% believed the economy is stronger than people think.

See inside for more details...