Big Small-Cap View. An old Wall Street sell-side saw says if you are going to forecast markets, either give a time or a price – just don’t give both. While I understand the wisdom behind it, wave counting offers both outputs – if one can be so bold. Where forecasts typically fail is not in construction, but in emotional attachment—analysts become wedded to targets while ignoring mounting evidence they’ve diverged from reality. It’s like “Stockhold Syndrome” where you just can’t bring yourself to sell a stock you’ve spent years holding, research, analyzing and building a position. You’ve fallen for your captor. Wave analysis, however, contains a built-in escape hatch. Since it is often ambiguous whether a move is a three-wave corrective or five-wave impulse, the framework forces probabilistic thinking—counts are updated as new data arrives. The book Superforecasting works in much the same way where top forecasters avoid binary assertions and continuously recalibrate probabilities.
That brings us to today’s Russell 2000 chart. Price action has largely adhered to our higher probability wave count despite persistent macro dissonance – namely, new all-time highs amid heightened geopolitical volatility. In this case…