We pivoted off our Jan 27th R2000 3000 target in mid-May, and the case for a consolidation has only firmed since. The R2000’s third consecutive RSI negative divergence on each new price high points to fifth wave exhaustion. Layer on a strengthening dollar, firming inflation until oil truly begins to re-flow, a new Warsh-led Fed bringing the prospect of a meaningful policy regime change, and the typical consolidation pattern ahead of mid-term elections (with political rhetoric set to heat up – can Trump resist suggesting Juneteenth should be renamed “Trump VI (Victory in Iran) Day”?)—and the risk/reward favors retreat. Small-caps can still lead during a consolidation as AI capex stresses Mega-cap free cash flow and liquidity moves from financial assets into the real economy. Our base case remains a pullback to the rising 200 DMA around 2555, with 2390 in play if global liquidity notably deteriorates. Longer-term, the ‘09-to-‘29 supercycle target of 4820 remains intact with small-caps affirming and expanding upon their nascent leadership mantle.